”The bad news is that we are in danger. The challenge is that we are running out of time. The opportunity is that we have the scalable solutions which will bring us to a better future.
Global emissions continue to rise ≈ 1% per year. Worryingly the rate of warming shows signs of accelerating. The 1.5°C limit will very likely be breached within 5-10 years.
Above 1.5°C we enter, with high certainty, the terrain of dangerous climate change. That means we have to do everything we can to limit warming below 1.5°C, even if we temporarily exceed it in a period of overshoot.
The only way to bring us back after overshoot is to (1) phase out fossil-fuels, (2) massively start scaling carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, (3) transform the global food system from being the single largest emitter of GHGs (≈ 30%), to become a net-sink of carbon, (4) invest in nature to bolster our resilience to warming, and (5) bring non-CO2 gases back to lowest possible levels by 2050.
COP30, what needs to happen
COP30 in Belém is the moment to align global policy with this scientific reality. Negotiators must translate the evidence into measurable action. These four steps are decisive:
- Get serious about phasing out fossil-fuels by 2050.
- CDR needs to remove some 400 billion tons of CO2 between now and 2100 to make a 5% per year emission reduction path consistent with returning to 1.5°C by 2100. This is huge and beyond any real-world deployment today (particularly for CDR technologies like CCS/DAC). But, the conclusion is, whether we like it or not, we have no choice. We have loaded so much heat into the Earth system that we need all hands on deck (both fossil fuel phase out and scaling of CDR, at record pace).
- Maintain pressure – the world is watching and overwhelmingly wants to see action on climate change.
- Bring the planet to the table.
Succeeding with this global transformation is not only necessary, it makes us all winner in the end – providing a safe, just, healthier, more secure, and modern future.”
